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2016 Offseason
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Butler >>>> Infinity >>>> LaVine

I would be ECSTATIC if we could trade for him. LaVine plus our pick (or whatever) would be an epic STEAL.

And then sign JoNo as a free agent.

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Wolfenstein - I'll concede that if I had to make a choice between who to trade from the current "big 3" I would probably pick LaVine. But it's close between him and Wiggins. I am still very high on him, and more lukewarm on Wiggins than most. I think both have a chance to change their careers for the better under Thibs and I hope both get that chance. To me the only true untouchable that I wouldnt trade for anyone in the league with the possible exception of Stephen Curry is Towns. LaVine is great. but he also is not a sure thing by any means and continues to have value by what he "could be" and not what he "is."

The entire point of the article was to get into the frame of mind of a new front office, how they might view the current landscape, and to explain that their viewpoints probably will vary greatly from what the fans, Flip and Milt felt or were "planning for" in many respects. Therefore, we should prepare for and expect a lot of change, whether it be something as small as Bazz playing a lot of power forward, or as big as at least :gasp: entertaining the possibility of trading LaVine for an effing established All-Star in his prime (I even said in the article such a move would make me uneasy, BTW). It's more reminding there could be a course change in on-court and team-building philosophy that isn't what we otherwise may have expected under Flip/Milt/Sam.

Quick rant, and this is not ZLV's fault obviously, but in reemphasizing the closing paragraph of the write-up, it took the morons in the front office a year and a half to figure out he wasn't a f*cking point guard because they weren't smart enough to understand Ricky's value on the court and didn't have a coach who was smart enough to figure out how to operate with a guy whose FG percentage is a touch deflated because 1/3 of his field goal attempts are long 2's vs. 1/5 at the rim. Thibs will fix Rubio's FG% immediately simply by virtue of shot selection. His eFG is better than a lot of starting 1's. His shot selection will get better and thus his FG% will rise. /Rubio tangent.

On the salary situation....the base salaries for all new non-rookie contracts are all ballooned as well. By the time Towns is up for extension Rubio will also be due for a pay raise into the "new era" of NBA money making. Wig and hopefully Zach will be locked in on contracts paying them about $20 million per season. Even without a bunch of mid career vet signings, it will be difficult to maintain this core for the very long haul despite the rising cap unless, as you said, guys take pay cuts which I don't see happening to players at their age. That's more of an old-timer move.


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WallyWorld wrote:

Wolfenstein - I'll concede that if I had to make a choice between who to trade from the current "big 3" I would probably pick LaVine. But it's close between him and Wiggins. I am still very high on him, and more lukewarm on Wiggins than most. I think both have a chance to change their careers for the better under Thibs and I hope both get that chance. To me the only true untouchable that I wouldnt trade for anyone in the league with the possible exception of Stephen Curry is Towns. LaVine is great. but he also is not a sure thing by any means and continues to have value by what he "could be" and not what he "is."

The entire point of the article was to get into the frame of mind of a new front office, how they might view the current landscape, and to explain that their viewpoints probably will vary greatly from what the fans, Flip and Milt felt or were "planning for" in many respects. Therefore, we should prepare for and expect a lot of change, whether it be something as small as Bazz playing a lot of power forward, or as big as at least :gasp: entertaining the possibility of trading LaVine for an effing established All-Star in his prime (I even said in the article such a move would make me uneasy, BTW). It's more reminding there could be a course change in on-court and team-building philosophy that isn't what we otherwise may have expected under Flip/Milt/Sam.

Quick rant, and this is not ZLV's fault obviously, but in reemphasizing the closing paragraph of the write-up, it took the morons in the front office a year and a half to figure out he wasn't a f*cking point guard because they weren't smart enough to understand Ricky's value on the court and didn't have a coach who was smart enough to figure out how to operate with a guy whose FG percentage is a touch deflated because 1/3 of his field goal attempts are long 2's vs. 1/5 at the rim. Thibs will fix Rubio's FG% immediately simply by virtue of shot selection. His eFG is better than a lot of starting 1's. His shot selection will get better and thus his FG% will rise. /Rubio tangent.

On the salary situation....the base salaries for all new non-rookie contracts are all ballooned as well. By the time Towns is up for extension Rubio will also be due for a pay raise into the "new era" of NBA money making. Wig and hopefully Zach will be locked in on contracts paying them about $20 million per season. Even without a bunch of mid career vet signings, it will be difficult to maintain this core for the very long haul despite the rising cap unless, as you said, guys take pay cuts which I don't see happening to players at their age. That's more of an old-timer move.


 Fair enough. I agree wholeheartedly on the Rubio thing (shooting percentage, fit with Thibs). With Zach, I am extremely high on him just because he was exactly what Rubio was missing the last 3+ years: an athletic wing who can shoot, put the ball on the deck, and elevate. When the FO and coach finally allowed Zach to play the off guard, he flourished and it was, like I have said, like watching a fish jump into water. I for one think that Zach has a sneaky work ethic because he wants to be great even though he's still a kid.

WRT taking a discount, it wouldn't need to be a huge discount but you've seen in San Antonio how it works when guys play for 90% of their open market salary and the team has continuity. You're seeing it with GSW as well. I think there's an entire generation of players that saw what happened when KG sucked up 25% of MN's cap space, ditto Kobe, ditto Amare, ditto Carmelo. Nobody wants to play for a loser and unless you're MJ, you're not bootstrapping your team to the title by yourself. It might be surprising to watch guys give up a little bit of $$$ for a chance at a title.



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I hear you. And in re-reading it it maybe does suggest I was down or soft on the guy. I may not be as SURE as some other people are such as yourself, but it is hard to argue that he doesn't at least get into that Crawford (pretty solid player), Brandon Knight, sort of 3rd tier/fringe-allstar guard level...At WORST. I guess I see right now as, if the new FO wants to make an immediate splash as they often do, LaVine strikes me as the guy who is most likely to be moved because he probably has really good value. After reading yours and other arguments, it would be hard for me to support a Butler move but I at least think about it pretty damn hard. Butler is REALLY good. It's not like I'm suggesting trading him for Jeff Green and a non-lotto first. A starting 5 of Towns, Butler, Wiggins. Rubio and Dieng is an immediate playoff team and a formidable one.

Again though, I'm just really intrigued by how these new guys build the team down to the details. They will surely add real vets (as in ones who can play). There will probably be a lot of grumbling when said vets play over guys we are used to seeing get major minutes and have high usage. Given LaVine is still makes a lot of mistakes I see him as a guy who may be benched from time to time.

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Understanding that it's still way too early to call, but based on what we know right now, how would the redraft of the 2014 Draft look?

Wiggins
Embiid?
Parker?
Jokic?
Jordan Clark?
LaVine

I suspect a lot of people would pass on any one of those 4 guys for Zach. He's in the mix to be one of the 2-3 best players from his draft class. In the mix.

Jimmy Butler is an established young 2 way star. But, you don't know how he would affect chemistry and I dare say without a glimpse of how Zach responds to Thibs, it's pretty hard to say what the trade landscape looks like. Plus a top 6 pick?

JB would be an interesting add but I really just want to watch the current core have some time and bench support to see what they can become.

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Also Jamal Crawford is not a very good basketball player, he's a shot hunting, no defense, over dribbling talented guy who can light it up but doesn't know how to be a part of a team. He's so talented that he can make up for his terrible habits and decision making from a scoreboard standpoint but you can never make up for all the little things that players like that do to team chemistry. I put him in the Gilbert Arenas category, less talented at the peak of his career but better over a longer stretch of time. I have similar feelings about Monta Ellis. And his game is ridiculously different than LaVine's. So I don't think that comparison makes sense.

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The re-draft is interesting. He is definitely top 5.

Yeah you aren't wrong on Crawford. Largely a good stats bad team guy, (like Arenas which is another good example) but has still carved out a long career. Obviously there are differences between the two but as a general comparison I think it's a valid FLOOR. It appears he will exceed that floor. He has the right attitude, as do all of the guys. Hard to see personalities, for example, being an issue for this team which is an excellent thing.

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I think I get what you're saying with Crawford being the "floor" but it's still a really weird choice since they're not similar players. Would it be fair to say you are talking statistically but not stylistically? Because the list of guys he compares to in style is pretty short and unless you start the crazy reaches with comparisons to very good players, there just aren't that many guys at or around Jamal Crawford's level of success with a game similar to LaVine's. And this year he turned 21 after the All Star break.

www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi

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wolfenstein wrote:

I think I get what you're saying with Crawford being the "floor" but it's still a really weird choice since they're not similar players. Would it be fair to say you are talking statistically but not stylistically? Because the list of guys he compares to in style is pretty short and unless you start the crazy reaches with comparisons to very good players, there just aren't that many guys at or around Jamal Crawford's level of success with a game similar to LaVine's. And this year he turned 21 after the All Star break.

www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi


I enjoy playing the comparison game, it's fun.  I was originally going to say that Lavine's game is like a young Clyde Drexler.  Then I realized that he's already quite a bit better of a shooter. Not nearly as good of a foul drawer.  Then I was thinking a pre-injury Eric Gordon.  That one seems potentially more accurate, although Lavine is more athletic and probably already better overall than Gordon has ever been. 



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Ron Harper but not as good on defense

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wolfenstein wrote:

Ron Harper but not as good on defense

 

Thats the Cleveland/Clippers Ron Harper. But Harper was always a decent defender IIRC. How about a young T-Mac comparison? Not as good of a rebounder maybe but otherwise some similarities.



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Young T-Mac on Offense, random sub on defense is the best comparison I got: www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi

FWIW I think Zach has the most to gain from Thibs being on board. Because his single biggest weakness is defense.

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